Visitation and Spend Forecast (February 2026)

An outlook on visitation and spending, including international spend and visitor forecast for 13 priority markets.

• According to Tourism Economics’ February forecast, California’s visitor volume increased an estimated 0.8% in 2025 and is projected to grow 1.8% in 2026, adding 4.9 million visits for a total of 276.6 million.
• Visitor spending rose 1.2% in 2025 to an estimated $159.3 billion (preliminary) and is projected to grow 3.5% to $164.8 billion in 2026.
• Domestic travel spending is forecast to grow 3.0% in 2026 following a 2.3% increase in 2025.
• International visits declined 2.0% in 2025 due to higher global tariffs and negative sentiment toward the U.S. over trade policies, but are forecast to rise 2.7% in 2026, supported by Los Angeles and San Francisco hosting  2026 FIFA World Cup matches.
• Overseas visits are forecast to decline 3.7% in 2025, and visits from Canada are projected to fall 18.4%.  Visits from Mexico, however, are expected to rise 5.9%.
• The drop in international visits is forecast to cause international spending to decline 2.1% in 2025.
• Growth in Mexican visits has less impact on international spending due to their lower average spend per visitor.